Long Range Forecasting
The Antarctic RCC’s Long Range Forecasting Node is led by the Bureau of Meteorology in Australia. Its mission is to coordinate, produce and disseminate long‑range forecasts for the Antarctic region, spanning monthly, seasonal and decadal time scales. This work draws on outputs from WMO Global Producing Centres for Long‑Range Forecasts (GPCs‑LRF) and on forecast systems contributed by partners across the AntRCC network.
The Node‑LRF fulfils the agreed RCC functions for long‑range forecasting by providing the following services:
- Interpret and assess long‑range forecast products from Global Producing Centres and partner forecasting systems, and distribute relevant information to AntRCC users.
- Generate regional and sub‑regional tailored forecast products and seasonal outlooks, including consensus‑based statements for the Antarctic Climate Forum (AntCF).
- Produce monthly to seasonal consensus outlooks through collaboration with partners and contribute to Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs).
- Evaluate the performance of forecast models and provide feedback to contributing Global Producing Centres and research groups.
- Support training and capacity building for Antarctic stakeholders in interpreting and applying long‑range forecast information.
The following national meteorological and research organisations provide significant contributions to the AntRCC Node‑LRF:
- Australia (Bureau of Meteorology): Provides global and regional forecasts drawing on outputs from GPC Melbourne, including temperature, pressure, sea surface temperature, geopotential height, snow and sea‑ice forecasts; assesses forecast performance; and supports annual RCOFs.
- CSIRO Decadal Climate Forecasting Project: Contributes ensemble climate forecasts extending several years into the future and hindcast data for verification; offers atmosphere, ocean and sea‑ice diagnostics at daily resolution.
- Australian Antarctic Division: Participates in the development of consensus statements for regional forecasts.
- Other partners: National meteorological and hydrological services from Chile, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Norway, Russia, South Africa, South Korea, the United Kingdom and the United States contribute data, modelling expertise and evaluation studies to support Antarctic long‑range forecasting.
These collective efforts enhance the accuracy and relevance of seasonal and decadal outlooks for the Antarctic region, supporting research, logistics and environmental decision‑making. RCCs and their users benefit from the WMO long‑range forecasting infrastructure, which provides global forecasts from monthly to seasonal time scales.
More about Node‑LRF: WMO RCC Information | AntRCC Long Range Forecast Resources
